Daily Killings in Mexico Decline Over a Third Under President Sheinbaum, Per Official Data

The typical number of per-day homicides per month in the country has fallen by thirty-seven percent since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, per new government figures. However, security specialists have advised that murder numbers may not signal improved countrywide security.

Notable Drop in Per-Day Averages

Officials reported an mean of almost 55 homicides a day in November versus almost 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum took the leadership in September. This data was shared by the head of the nation's national public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular news conference on Tuesday.

“The outcome in murders that have been recorded in these past months is extremely significant,” Claudia Sheinbaum remarked, explaining that the previous month the lowest number of murders were recorded for any single November in the last 10 years.

Historical Background and Government Plan

Intense organized crime internal conflicts, combined with the administration's highly militarised efforts to take on the drug gangs, have caused Mexico’s homicide rate escalate in recent times. The rate peaked at a peak of 36,773 homicides in 2020, as reported by the nation's official data agency.

That resulted in Mexico a homicide rate more than four times greater than the US. However, murders have been on the decline, declining to 33,550 in the last calendar year. The President has attributed her public safety strategy for an seemingly more pronounced decline in homicides this year.

At a press conference in the summer, the Mexican leader stated: “We have a plan, we have monitoring of the plan, and we have detailed monitoring municipality by municipality in some cases. The strategy works. And we have to continue working at it daily.”

The main pillars of Sheinbaum’s safety strategy encompass:

• Strengthening Mexico’s federal guard.
• Advancing information gathering and investigation efforts.
• Increased cooperation between various agencies.

Analyst Warnings and Statistical Concerns

However, public safety analysts urged caution that focusing solely on murder data to draw a conclusion of peace was flawed. This is particularly true given the uptick in other criminal activities such as abductions.

“It would be excellent information if this was a decrease, but I think we shouldn't just focus on the homicide data and conclude: ‘Oh well, great,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexico's criminal organizations. “I would be cautiously optimistic.”

According to the policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, homicides overall fell by over 20% in the first 10 months of the current year compared with the same timeframe the previous year. However, disappearances have risen by 15% and in some regions have surged by up to 200%.

“Data on homicides is not useful for estimating the context of public insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and investigators who lack the resources or the inclination to accurately identify and classify bodies. Second, organised [criminals] … have the means to mask violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas noted that using month-to-month averages of daily homicides was similarly concerning because it might hide periods when there were particularly high numbers of murders.

“Relying on the per-day average renders spikes of violence invisible,” he stated.

Arrests and Seizures as Measures of Success

Where the government can point to the success of its security strategy is on arrests and confiscations. Nearly 40,000 individuals were detained between last October and November 2025 for major crimes, per government figures. More than 20,000 weapons were confiscated and 311 tons of drugs intercepted.

“Donald Trump cannot claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because in reality she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, many thousands of seizures, and all the tactical degrading of organised crime. It’s very in political terms beneficial,” stated Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Public Anger

But despite these efforts, Mexico continues to be grappling with high violence, with a number of regions in the grip of cartel-fueled violence. Recently there was a high-profile killing of a well-liked local official in the region of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders killed in the past year.

A short time later, thousands of young people demonstrated in Mexico City and throughout the country to express their anger at graft and drug violence.

“The government frames [data] in a manner to build a narrative of security. From a political standpoint it’s very potent, socially it’s very debatable,” Vargas remarked.